Hi rob0bops,
I so appreciate how overwhelming learning anything new can be. (I'm learning how to be more proficient on the Excel program and feel exactly as you do!)
Here is what I know:
1) The more assessments you give, the better you become at diagnosing student needs.
2) The more you work with the strategies, the easier it becomes to align a strategy with student needs based on their assessment.
3) Even as experienced as I am with giving an assessment and figuring out what strategy to try, there is no perfect and fool-proof way of doing this. This is why we confer individually with so many students each day as nothing takes the place of teaching a strategy and seeing right there if it is working for the student or not. If it isn't working, I switch to a new strategy! We don't beat a dead horse and stick with teaching the same strategy for a long time if we don't see our instruction working.
4) Love the suggestion by srea. Another thing to add to this idea are the Ready Reference Guides for each strategy. As a student is reading and you are noticing the miscues and are trying to decide which of the strategies will be a good place to start, look at the Ready Reference Guides. By reading the top three sections of each guide: Definition, Why children need this strategy, and Definition, you can get a picture of whether or not this strategy may describe what the student needs.
Running the Ready Reference Guides off and adding them to the notebook srea mentioned, is a great support as well. If you choose this method, put the two forms together by the sections of Goal (Comprehension, Accuracy, etc.) and within each section by strategy, which will make them easier to find. Another option is to have your iPad with you when you are assessing so you can access them electronically. You can find the Ready Reference Guides here: https://www.thedailycafe.com/search/results?tab=0&keywords=ready+reference+guides&author=0&data%5Barticletypes%5D=0&article_search_button=Search
5) And last, but not least...wait for it......
There is no computer program that will ever be able to be as smart as an excellent teacher! 